US homebuilder sentiment slips in March

U.S. homebuilders are feeling slightly less confident in their sales prospects, but their overall sales outlook remains favorable.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday slipped to 53 this month, down two points from 55 in February. It's the third monthly decline in a row for the index.

Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as good, however.

Labor shortages, a dearth of available land parcels cleared for new home construction and tougher mortgage-lending standards weighed on builders' confidence this month, said David Crowe, the builder group's chief economist.

"These obstacles notwithstanding, we are expecting solid gains in the housing market this year, buoyed by sustained job growth, low mortgage interest rates and pent-up demand," Crowe added.

Despite the increasingly favorable economy, home sales have been sluggish so far this year after a lackluster 2014.

Sales of new U.S. homes were basically flat in January, slipping 0.2 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000. Sales climbed 5.3 percent from a year earlier, when harsh winter weather caused home-buying to stall.

Still, lower mortgage rates and job gains over the past year are among the factors pointing to stronger sales this spring buying season, traditionally the peak period for home sales.

Mortgage rates remain near historic lows. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.86 percent last week, according to the mortgage giant Freddie Mac. A year ago it stood at 4.37 percent.

Meanwhile, employers have stepped up hiring. The economy added a solid 295,000 jobs last month, helping to bring down the national unemployment rate to a seven-year low of 5.5 percent. More Americans earning paychecks should eventually push home sales higher.

The latest NAHB index was based on responses from 346 builders. Its measure of current sales conditions fell three points to 58, while a gauge of traffic by prospective buyers declined two points to 37. Builders' outlook for sales over the next six months held steady at 59.

Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to NAHB data.

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Unions in Hungary seek referendum to overturn shopping ban

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungarian trade unions will try to launch a referendum to overturn a new rule banning most stores from opening on Sundays.

Istvan Gasko, president of the Democratic League of Independent Trade Unions, said Monday the government had held only "pretend negotiations" before making the decision, which affects most stores across the country from March 15.

"Together with the country's largest employers' group, the National Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers, we decided to initiate a referendum to conclude this matter and ask people whether or not they support the Sunday closures," Gasko said.

He explained that the change hurts employees, many of whom earn the minimum monthly wage of 105,000 forints ($365) before taxes, because they will lose Sunday bonuses, while consumers will lose the comfort of Sunday shopping.

The unions need an electoral committee's approval and 200,000 signatures to have a referendum.

The "Free Sunday" initiative proposed by the Christian Democrats, a small ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party, has not found favor with most consumers.

Government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said the new rules were similar to those in some other European countries and that any negative effects on consumer spending, a key factor in Hungary's economic growth, would be temporary.

"We believe that what is working in Germany, in Austria, in Norway, in Holland, is going to work in Hungary," Kovacs said. "The goal is that people are not forced to work on Sundays."

A poll by Ipsos found that 68 percent of respondents were totally or somewhat against the ban, although 77 percent said they did not usually shop on Sundays.

Some shoppers were clearly upset by the ban.

"I don't agree at all with shops being closed on Sundays ... because people work so much and until so late on weekdays that they have no other time" (to shop), said Budapest resident Gabriella Szentgyorgyi.

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Blackstone buying Chicago's Willis Tower for undisclosed sum

NEW YORK — Blackstone is buying Chicago's Willis Tower, once called the Sears Tower, from 233 South Wacker LLC for an undisclosed amount.

The Willis Tower is 110-stories and the second-tallest office building in the U.S. It is the fifth-tallest office building in the world.

The Willis Tower's Skydeck, located on the 103rd floor, is a popular tourist attraction. It provides 1.6 million visitors a year with views of Chicago and the surrounding area including from the "Ledge," glass cubes which extend from the building.

Jacob Werner, a managing director in Blackstone's real estate group, said in a statement on Monday that Blackstone sees "great potential in further improving both the building's retail operations and the tourist experience for one of the most popular destinations for visitors to Chicago."

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US stocks open higher, rebounding after weeks of losses

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks opened higher Monday, led by health care and utilities companies, rebounding after three weeks of losses. Investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve this week. Policymakers begin a two-day meeting Tuesday and may signal that they are considering raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.

KEEPING SCORE: The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 17 points, or 0.9 percent, 2,070 as of 9:57 a.m. Eastern. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 167 points, or 0.9 percent, to 17,916. The Nasdaq composite climbed 33 points, or 0.7 percent, 4,905.

FED IN FOCUS: Investors' focus for much of the early part of this week will be the Fed. Policymakers start a two-day meeting Tuesday and many expect the U.S. central bank will signal in a statement after the meeting that they are considering raising interest rates later this year.

Policymakers have said they would be "patient" when it came to raising interest rates. Investors are watching to see if the Fed removes that word from its next statement.

The Fed has kept its benchmark lending rate near zero for more than six years, underpinning a strong rally in U.S. stocks.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: U.S. industrial production edged up slightly in February, as a big surge by utilities due to a cold winter offset a third straight decline in factory output.

The Federal Reserve says that overall industrial production rose 0.1 percent in February following a 0.3 percent fall in January. Manufacturing growth has slowed over the past six months. U.S. producers have had to contend with a rising dollar, which makes their goods more expensive in foreign markets.

THE QUOTE: The Fed meeting will "undoubtedly" be the week's highlight for investors, Michael Every, head of Asia-Pacific financial market research at Rabobank, wrote in a commentary. "We might well say goodbye to the key term 'patience,' which has become a rolling rule of thumb for 'a few more months.' In other words, March could officially open the door to a potential June rate hike."

EUROPE'S DAY: Germany's DAX rose 1.5 percent to 12,036.12, the first time it has traded above 12,000. France's CAC 40 rose 0.6 percent to 5,038, while Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.5 percent to 6,771. European stocks have surged this year after the European Central Bank announced that it would introduce more stimulus to revive the region's slumping economy.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude fell $1.19 to $43.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling earlier to its lowest level in six years. The contract fell $2.21 to close at $44.84 a barrel on Friday. Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped $1.36 to $53.66 a barrel in London.

BONDS: In bond trading, prices rose slightly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 2.07 percent from 2.12 percent on Friday.

CURRENCIES: The euro strengthened to $1.0609 from $1.0497 Friday. The dollar weakened to 121.16 yen from 121.40 yen.

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Flawed Social Security data say 6.5M in US reach age 112

WASHINGTON — Americans are getting older, but not this old: Social Security records show that 6.5 million people in the U.S. have reached the ripe old age of 112.

In reality, only few could possibly be alive. As of last fall, there were only 42 people known to be that old in the entire world.

But Social Security does not have death records for millions of these people, with the oldest born in 1869, according to a report by the agency's inspector general.

Only 13 of the people are still getting Social Security benefits, the report said. But for others, their Social Security numbers are still active, so a number could be used to report wages, open bank accounts, obtain credit cards or claim fraudulent tax refunds.

"That is a real problem," said Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis. "When you have a fake Social Security number, that's what allows you to fraudulently do all kinds things, claim things like the earned income tax credit or other tax benefits."

Johnson is chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, which plans a hearing Monday on problems with death records maintained by the Social Security Administration.

Johnson said he is working on legislation to make it easier for Social Security to use information from states to maintain more accurate death records.

"There's got to be a legislative solution here, and that's the thing that we're going to try and determine," Johnson said. "The best death statistics really come from states, the vital statistics agencies."

The agency said it is working to improve the accuracy of its death records. But it would be costly and time-consuming to update 6.5 million files that were generated decades ago, when the agency used paper records, said Sean Brune, a senior adviser to the agency's deputy commissioner for budget, finance, quality and management.

"The records in this review are extremely old, decades-old, and unreliable," Brune said.

The internal watchdog's report does not document any fraudulent or improper payments to people using these Social Security numbers. But it raises red flags that it could be happening.

For example, nearly 67,000 of the Social Security numbers were used to report more than $3 billion in wages, tips and self-employment income from 2006 to 2011, according to the report. One Social Security number was used 613 different times. An additional 194 numbers were used at least 50 times each.

People in the country illegally often use fake or stolen Social Security numbers to get jobs and report wages, as do other people who do not want to be found by the government. Thieves use stolen Social Security numbers to claim fraudulent tax refunds.

The IRS estimated it paid out $5.8 billion in fraudulent tax refunds in 2013 because of identity theft. The head of the Justice Department's tax division described how it's done at a recent congressional hearing.

"The plan is frighteningly simple — steal Social Security numbers, file tax returns showing a false refund claim, and then have the refunds electronically deposited or sent to an address where the offender can access the refund checks," said acting Assistant Attorney General Caroline Ciraolo.

In some cases, she said, false tax returns are filed using Social Security numbers of deceased taxpayers or others who are not required to file.

The Social Security Administration generates a list of dead people to help public agencies and private companies know when Social Security numbers are no longer valid for use. The list is called the Death Master File, which includes the name, Social Security number, date of birth and date of death for people who have died.

The list is widely used by employers, financial firms, credit reporting agencies and security firms. Federal agencies and state and local governments rely on it to police benefit payments.

But none of the 6.5 million people cited by the inspector general's report was on the list. The audit analyzed records as of 2013, looking for people with birth dates before 1901.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act in 1935, and the first old-age monthly benefit check was paid in 1940.

Many of the people cited in the inspector general's report never received benefits, though they were assigned Social Security numbers so spouses and children could receive them, presumably after they died.

The agency says it has corrected death information in more than 200,000 records. But fixing the entire list would be costly and time-consuming because Social Security needs proof that a person is dead to add them to the death list, said Brune, the agency official.

Brune noted that the inspector general's report did not verify that any of the 6.5 million people are actually dead. Instead, the report assumed they are dead because of their advanced age.

"We can't post information to our records based on presumption," Brune said. "We post information to our records based on evidence, and in this case it would be evidence of a death certificate."

"Some of those records may not even exist," Brune added.

Nearly all the Social Security numbers are from paper records generated before the agency started using electronic records in 1972, Brune said. Many of the records contain errors, with multiple birthdates and bits of information about different family members.

"We did transcribe paper records into the electronic system and over time that information's been purified," Brune said.

"But our focus right now is to make sure our data is as accurate and complete as it can be for our current program purpose," said Brune. "Right now, we're focused on making sure we're paying beneficiaries properly, and that's how we're investing our resources at this time."

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Follow Stephen Ohlemacher on Twitter: http://twitter.com/stephenatap

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Factory output falls for third straight month in February

WASHINGTON — Output at U.S. factories fell for a third straight month in February, driven by a big drop in production at auto plants.

The Federal Reserve said Monday that manufacturing output fell 0.2 percent in February, following a decline of 0.3 percent in January. Overall industrial production edged up a slight 0.1 percent in February, as unusually cold weather in many parts of the country led to a surge at utilities.

The weakness at factories is attributed in part to a stronger dollar, which makes U.S. exports more expensive on overseas markets, and supply disruptions from the labor dispute at West Coast ports.

Analysts, however, aren't too concerned. They say rising consumer spending will likely offset the recent lackluster showing in manufacturing. Solid job gains and lower gasoline prices should give households more to spend on other items.

"We expect that the strong domestic economy will ensure that manufacturing output continues to grow at a reasonable pace despite the strong dollar," said Paul Dales, senior economist at Capital Economics.

The February factory weakness was led by a 3 percent plunge in production of motor vehicles and parts, the third straight decline in the category. Production of machinery and primary metals such as steel and appliances also fell.

Manufacturing growth has slowed over the past six months. U.S. producers have had to contend with a rising dollar, which makes their goods more expensive in foreign markets. Production has also been hurt by supply disruptions from the West Coast labor dispute. The dispute was settled in the third week of February, but analysts said it could take months to work through a massive backlog of containers at the port.

The 7.3 percent surge in utility output reflected frigid temperatures on the East Coast and record snowfall levels in the Northeast.

Output in mining fell 2.5 percent in February, with oil and gas well drilling down 17.3 percent — the biggest one-month drop in nearly three decades. Oil prices have skidded by about half since last summer, which has led drilling companies to hold off on new wells and reduce oil and gas extraction.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group for purchasing managers, reported that its index of manufacturing activity slipped to 52.9 in February, marking the fourth straight drop and the lowest reading since January 2014. The ISM index showed that orders, hiring and production all slowed last month.

The rising dollar is expected to contribute to bigger trade gap this year. The trade deficit widened in the October-December quarter, subtracting 1.1 percentage points from the economy's growth rate during the period.

Growth slowed to a rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, and many analysts believe the pace will be similar in the January-March quarter.

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Obama administration: 16.4M have gained health insurance

WASHINGTON — More than 16 million Americans have gained insurance coverage as a result of President Barack Obama's health care law, the administration said Monday as the White House prepares to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the law's signing.

In releasing the latest estimates, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell called it "the largest reduction in the uninsured in four decades."

Obama signed the Affordable Care Act on March 23, 2010, but it has been politically divisive from the start.

Democrats hailed it as the culmination of decades of effort to guarantee health coverage for all Americans, including people with health problems who until then could have been turned away by insurance companies. Republicans called it government overreach, and haven't stopped trying to repeal or roll back what they dismiss as "Obamacare."

Burwell said the administration now estimates that 16.4 million people have gained coverage as a result of the law.

The program offers subsidized private coverage for people who don't have health insurance on the job, along with an expanded Medicaid program that a majority of states have accepted.

Most of those gaining coverage — 14.1 million adults — got their insurance after the law's big expansion began at the end of 2013.

Another 2.3 million people had gained coverage previously. Those were young adults allowed to remain on a parent's plan until age 26 under one of the law's most popular provisions.

Independent studies, including the extensive Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, have documented the same general trend.

The administration said all racial and ethnic groups have seen gains in coverage, but the biggest improvement has come among minority groups.

Since the start of last year, the uninsured rate dropped by more than 12 percentage points among Hispanics, more than 9 percentage points among African-Americans and more than 5 percentage points among whites.

The coverage gains haven't settled the political debate. Republicans now in charge of both chambers of Congress remain committed to repeal, although Obama is sure to veto any such legislation.

The biggest question hanging over the health care law now is a case before the Supreme Court, in which its opponents have argued that subsidies are illegal in most states. They contend that the exact wording of the law only allows subsidized coverage in states that have set up their own insurance markets, and most have not done so. The administration counters that the context of the law makes it clear its purpose was to expand coverage in every state.

Independent estimates say about 8 million people could lose coverage if the subsidies are struck down. A decision is expected by the end of June.

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Associated Press writer Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar contributed to this report.

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Massachusetts gas prices drop 4 cents per gallon

BOSTON — After several weeks of rising prices, the cost of gasoline in Massachusetts is falling again.

AAA Northeast reported Monday that the cost of a gallon of self-serve, regular has dropped 4 cents to an average of $2.41, a penny less than the national average.

The price is still 20 cents higher than it was a month ago, but $1.10 lower than a year ago.

AAA found self-serve, regular selling for as low as $2.25 per gallon and as high as $2.49.

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Feds give up on collecting $4M fine in Connecticut scandal

NEW HAVEN, Conn. — Federal prosecutors have given up on collecting a $4 million fine from a defunct Boston investment firm that was convicted in a late 1990s Connecticut treasurer's bribery and kickback scandal.

A federal judge on Friday granted prosecutors' motion to stop efforts to collect the fine from Triumph Capital Group Inc.

Triumph was convicted in 2003 of racketeering, bribery, wire fraud and other charges for getting former Connecticut Treasurer Paul Silvester to invest $200 million in state pension funds with the firm by giving $1 million job contracts to his associates. The firm's chairman and general counsel also were convicted in the scandal.

Prosecutors say Triumph is no longer operating and appears to have no assets.

Silvester served nearly two years in prison for his role in the scandal.

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What it means if Fed no longer says it's 'patient' on rates

WASHINGTON — For the Federal Reserve, patience may no longer be a virtue.

Surrounding the Fed's policy meeting this week is the widespread expectation that it will no longer use the word "patient" to describe its stance on raising interest rates from record lows.

The big question is: What will that mean?

Many economists say the dropping of "patience" would signal that the Fed plans to start raising rates in June to reflect a steadily strengthening U.S. job market. Others foresee no rate hike before September. And a few predict no increase before year's end at the earliest.

Complicating the decision is a surging U.S. dollar, which is keeping inflation far below the Fed's target rate and posing a threat to U.S. corporate profits and possibly to the economy. A rate increase could send the dollar even higher.

In a statement it will issue when its meeting ends Wednesday and in a news conference Chair Janet Yellen will hold afterward, the Fed isn't likely to telegraph its timetable. Yellen has said that any decision to raise rates will reflect the latest economic data and that the Fed must remain flexible.

Still, nervous investors have been selling stocks out of concern that a rate increase — which could slow borrowing and spending and weigh on the economy — is coming soon.

"I think the odds are better than 50-50 that the Fed ... will drop the word 'patient' at the March meeting, and that would put an initial rate hike in play, perhaps as early as the June meeting," said David Jones, author of several books about the Fed.

Historically, the Fed raises rates as the economy strengthens in order to control growth and prevent inflation from overheating. Over the past 12 months, U.S. employers have added a solid 200,000-plus jobs every month. And unemployment has reached a seven-year low of 5.5 percent, the top of the range the Fed has said is consistent with a healthy economy.

The trouble is that the Fed isn't meeting its other major policy goal — achieving stable inflation, which it defines as annual price increases of around 2 percent. According to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, prices rose just 0.2 percent over the past 12 months. In part, excessively low U.S. inflation reflects sinking energy prices and the dollar's rising value, which lowers the prices of goods imported to the United States.

It isn't just inflation that remains below optimal levels. Though the job market has been strong, the overall economy has yet to regain full health. The economy slowed to a tepid 2.2 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter, and economists generally think the current quarter might be even weaker. Manufacturers are struggling with falling exports, partly because of the strong dollar, and consumers — the drivers of the economy — have seemed reluctant to spend their windfall savings from cheaper energy.

What's more, pay for many workers remains stagnant, and there are 6.6 million part-timers who can't find full-time jobs — nearly 50 percent more than in 2007, before the recession began.

For those reasons, some analysts think it would be premature to raise rates soon.

"The last thing the Fed wants to do right now is spook the markets and the economy into an even slower growth trajectory," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Tufts University.

After it met in December, the Fed said for the first time that it would be "patient' about raising rates. Yellen said that meant there would be no increase at the Fed's next two meetings. And in testimony to Congress last month, she cautioned that even when "patient" is dropped, it won't necessarily signal an imminent rate hike — only that the Fed will think the economy has improved enough for it to consider a rate increase on a "meeting-by-meeting basis."

Some economists say the Fed may tweak its policy statement this week to signal that a higher inflation outlook would be needed before any rate hike. And they expect the Fed to go further in coming months to ready investors for the inevitable.

"The process is going to be glacial," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago. "They want to prepare the markets for change, but they don't want to scare them."

Though Swonk thinks the Fed will drop "patient" from its statement this week, she doesn't expect a rate hike before September. Even then, she foresees only small increases in its benchmark rate.

Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at the Martin Smith School of Business at California State University, suggested that the Fed's strategy in beginning to raise rates won't be to slow the economy. Rather, he thinks the goal will be to manage the expectations of investors, some of whom weren't even in business in 2004, the last time the Fed began raising rates.

"The Fed is just trying to send a message that the world is about to enter a new age after a long period of low interest rates to a period of rising rates," Sohn said.

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