Stocks mixed ahead of this week's Fed meeting

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks were mixed in the early the afternoon Monday, ahead of this week's potentially pivotal Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is nearing the end of its bond-buying stimulus program, and investors will be looking for clues about when the central bank will start raising interest rates.

A weak report on U.S. manufacturing also weighed on the stock market. In Europe, investors looked ahead to Scotland's independence referendum, which could shake up U.K. financial markets.

KEEPING SCORE: The Dow Jones industrial average rose 18 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,006 as of 12:29 p.m. Eastern time. The Standard & Poor's 500 index nudged three points lower, or 0.2 percent, to 1,981. The Nasdaq composite fell 51 points, or 1.1 percent, to 4,515.

FED MEETING: The main market event this week is likely to be the Fed's two-day policy meeting, which starts on Tuesday. Investors will be watching for any change in the central bank's guidance about the direction for interest rates. Analysts have warned over the past week that the Fed might raise interest rates sooner than expected as the economy improves.

M&A ON TAP: Molson Coors was up $5.37, or 7.5 percent, to $77.15, after touching an all-time high. The brewer's stock jumped on merger news in the beer brewing industry. Family-controlled brewer Heineken said late Sunday that it has rejected a takeover bid by rival SABMiller, the world's second-largest brewer. Reports said that SABMiller tried to buy Heineken as a defense against an acquisition bid from Anheuser-Busch InBev, the industry leader.

THE ECONOMY: Investors got mixed news on the economy Monday. U.S. manufacturing output declined in August for the first time in seven months, reflecting a sharp fall in production at auto plants. Output at manufacturing plants fell 0.4 percent in August after a 0.7 percent rise in July, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. On the other hand, a gauge of manufacturing in New York state jumped to 27.5 in August from 14.7 in July.

THE QUOTE: Investors shouldn't focus too much about the upcoming Fed meeting, because policy makers will keep rates low until they are convinced that the economic recovery is entrenched, said Jackie Perrins, a global investment specialist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

"There may be some short-term reaction, but in the medium and long-term, it's really about earnings and the economy, which we believe are on track," said Perrins.

TECH SLUMP: Technology stocks fell the most of the 10 industry groups that make up the S&P 500 index. The sector slipped 0.7 percent. The consumer discretionary sector, which includes luxury retailers and entertainment companies, was the second-biggest decliner, easing 0.6 percent.

SCOTLAND'S CHOICE: Another big event this week is Thursday's independence referendum in Scotland. With opinion polls showing the vote too close to call, there's potential for some sizeable move in U.K. markets. The pound has been extremely volatile in the last couple of weeks as the opinion polls have narrowed. On Monday, the pound was 0.2 percent lower at $1.6231.

EUROPEAN STOCKS: In Europe, Germany's DAX closed up 0.1 percent, while France's CAC-40 declined 0.3 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 was unchanged.

CURRENCIES: The dollar gained against the euro, but fell against the Japanese yen. Against Europe's common currency, the dollar gained 0.2 percent to $1.29 per euro. It fell 0.2 percent to 107.2 against the yen.

BONDS: In government bond trading, prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which falls when prices rise, dropped to 2.59 percent from 2.61 percent late Friday, when it reached a two-month high.

ENERGY: A report that showed Chinese industrial production slowed dramatically in August weighed on oil markets. Benchmark U.S. oil was little changed at $92.35 per barrel. Brent crude, used to price international oils, declined 54 cents to $96.59 a barrel.

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Pewdiepie joins MLG, 'Broken' to stream exclusively on eSports Network

PewDiePie has found a new bro in Major League Gaming.

Felix Kjellberg, who operates PewDiePie, YouTube's most popular channel, has agreed to start streaming episodes of his series "BroKen," exclusively on MLG.tv, starting today.

Under the agreement, "BroKen" will appear on MLG.tv before they are posted anywhere else and replays also will air immediately following the initial stream.

In "BroKen" -- PewDiePie calls his fans "bros" -- Kjellberg and his friend Kenneth Morrison, who goes by the name CinnamonToastKen, discuss a variety of topics that cover gaming and YouTube trends.

During the stream, MLG.tv viewers can follow @MLG and use hashtag #BroKen to interact with the show or utilize the new MLG.tv chat feature.

MLG has yet to disclose when the series will regularly appear on its free, ad-supported network.

MLG.tv is available online and through MLG.tv and apps on Apple and Android devices, Xbox One and Xbox 360.

PewDiePie, with more than 30 million subscribers on YouTube, becomes the latest high-profile channel MLG has added to its digital network dedicated to gaming and eSports since Ryan "Fwiz" Wyatt rejoined the company in April as MLG's VP of programming.

The company counts more than 120 of the more influential leaders in the videogame space, including players, teams and leagues such as the U.K.'s Gfinity; ACL Pro, of Australia; the U.S.' UMG; "Call of Duty" pros Nadeshot and Scumpi, and teams like OpTic Gaming, and MMA fighter Scott Jorgensen.

"We're excited to introduce PewDiePie to the MLG.tv network as we continue to deliver exclusive content from the best producers in the world," Wyatt said. "Our vision for MLG.tv is to make it the home for premium content and producers like PewDiePie and his show 'BroKen.' This type of programming deal with PewDiePie, one of the biggest stars in digital media, is a great example of the premier talent we have joining the growing MLG.tv line-up."

PewDiePie is certainly a big get for MLG, whose rival Twitch was recently acquired by Amazon for $970 million last month.

Kjellberg generated $4 million in advertising revenue last year from videos on YouTube, which primarily consist of him playing videogames. His channel, now owned by Disney through the acquisition of Maker Studios, has more than 4.7 billion views. He has close to 4 million followers on Twitter, which provides MLG with a massive new base of viewers through which Kjellberg can promote its brand, which launched in late 2013.

© 2014 Variety Media, LLC, a subsidiary of Penske Business Media; Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC

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Detroit bankruptcy trial resumes after settlement

DETROIT — A judge refused to extend a timeout Monday in Detroit's bankruptcy trial after a deal with a major creditor removed another opponent from the city's plan to exit the largest Chapter 9 case in U.S. history.

A bond insurer, Financial Guaranty Insurance, said it needs more time to craft trial strategy after another insurer ironed out a settlement with Detroit. But Judge Steven Rhodes said Financial Guaranty should have been prepared to lose an ally, and he resumed the trial with testimony from a pension actuary.

The trial was suspended last Wednesday so Detroit and Syncora could reach an agreement. Syncora is getting cash and long-term leases on a parking garage and the tunnel between Detroit and Canada, among other concessions.

The settlement will help "return the city to its citizens," said Detroit attorney David Heiman, adding that Syncora and the city "have laid down their swords."

Syncora and Financial Guaranty have been the most aggressive opponents in Detroit's bankruptcy, especially because the city is refusing to sell art to pay debts.

The judge is hearing evidence to decide whether the overall bankruptcy exit plan is fair to creditors and feasible in the years ahead. Thousands of retirees would see a 4.5 percent cut in their pension.

Separately, Syncora lawyers from the Kirkland & Ellis firm in Chicago apologized to two mediators who brokered a deal that prevents the sale of art and improves the city's pension funds.

Syncora had accused Gerald Rosen, a federal judge, and Eugene Driker, a local lawyer, of "naked favoritism." They were accused of stiffing other creditors in order to help retirees and the Detroit Institute of Arts.

Syncora lawyers in a summer court filing had also taken a jab at Driker's wife, Elaine, who is a former museum trustee. Rhodes called the filing "scandalous and defamatory."

"We are deeply sorry for the mistake we made and for any unfounded aspersions it may have cast on Chief Judge Rosen and the Drikers," Syncora attorney James Sprayregen said in a filing Monday.

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Follow Ed White at http://twitter.com/edwhiteap

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Apple: Record 4M orders of iPhones on 1st day

NEW YORK — Apple had more than 4 million advance orders of its new, larger iPhones in the first 24 hours, exceeding its initial supply, the company said Monday.

The iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus will be delivered to customers starting Friday and throughout September, but many won't be delivered until October, Apple said. Phones will still be available Friday on a walk-in basis at Apple retail stores and from various wireless carriers and authorized Apple resellers.

Apple's website had intermittent outages last Friday because of heavy traffic as orders began online. The company said the 4 million orders set a new 24-hour record, beating the 2 million orders in 2012. That was for the iPhone 5, the previous time Apple increased the iPhone's screen size.

Last year, Apple sold 9 million iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c phones in the first three days they were on sale, but the company didn't say how many came in the first 24 hours of advance orders.

The iPhone 5, 5s and 5c have screens measuring 4 inches diagonally. The iPhone 6 is 4.7 inches, and the iPhone 6 Plus is 5.5 inches.

Besides larger screens, the new phones announced last week offer faster performance and a wireless chip for making credit card payments at retail stores by holding the phone near the payment terminal. The phones start at $199 with a two-year service contact.

The new phones will initially be available in the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Puerto Rico, Singapore and the U.K. Availability will expand to more than 20 additional countries a week later.

A free update to Apple's iOS software for mobile devices will be available to existing users on Wednesday. The new phones will come with the update, known as iOS 8.

Apple's stock rose 30 cents to $101.96 in midday trading Monday.

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Media and entertainment sector profitability forecast to rise again in 2014

Big media and entertainment companies worldwide are expected to average 28% profit margins this year, up from 26% last year, according to a forecast from consulting firm EY. That's better than major stock-market indices, and the highest level since it began tracking sector-wide profitability in 2006.

Of the 10 media and entertainment sectors EY tracks, cable TV leads the pack. Cable operators are projected to achieve 41% margins in 2014, followed by cable networks at 37%. The others are: interactive media, 36%; electronic games, 29%; media conglomerates, 26%; satellite TV, 26%; publishing and information services, 21%; television broadcast, 19%; film and TV production, 12%; and music, 11%.

By comparison the firm expects companies in the S&P 500 Index to have 27% margins on average this year, with other cross-industry indices around globe lower, per EY. The report analyzes earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to gauge relative profitability, and found that on average M&E EBITDA profits have risen each year since 2010.

"The hidden secret is, media and entertainment companies are performing very efficiently," said John Nendick, EY's global head of media and entertainment.

However, not everything is coming up roses for all M&E players. Jobs in the motion picture and sound industries have declined 19% over the last two years, according figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through August 2014.

Over all, though, media and entertainment companies remain healthy, according to EY. Key factors boosting M&E sector profitability in 2014 are chiefly expansion of digital distribution and growth in international markets, Nendick said, along with higher advertising spending and acquisitions and divestitures.

"We are seeing that digital is very much driving profits now, instead of disrupting it," Nendick said. And while U.S. M&E markets are generally mature, "internationally there is still substantial growth."

The report examined 106 companies worldwide that reported at least $1 billion in revenue for 2013, including Disney, Time Warner, Comcast, CBS, Viacom, 21st Century Fox, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Lionsgate, Google, Netflix and Facebook.

© 2014 Variety Media, LLC, a subsidiary of Penske Business Media; Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC

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US wealth gap putting the squeeze on state revenue

WASHINGTON — Income inequality is taking a toll on state governments.

The widening gap between the wealthiest Americans and everyone else has been matched by a slowdown in state tax revenue, according to a report being released Monday by Standard & Poor's.

Even as income for the affluent has accelerated, it's barely kept pace with inflation for most other people. That trend can mean a double-whammy for states: The wealthy often manage to shield much of their income from taxes. And they tend to spend a lower percentage of it than others do, thereby limiting sales tax revenue.

As the growth of tax revenue has slowed, states have faced tensions over whether to raise taxes or cut spending to balance their budgets as required by law.

"Rising income inequality is not just a social issue," said Gabriel Petek, the S&P credit analyst who wrote the report. "It presents a very significant set of challenges for the policymakers."

Stagnant pay for most people has compounded the pressure on states to preserve funding for education, highways and social programs such as Medicaid. Their investments in education and infrastructure have also fueled economic growth. Yet they're at risk without a strong flow of tax revenue.

The prospect of having to raise taxes to balance a state budget is a politically delicate one. The allure of low taxes has been used by states to spur job creation, by attracting factories, businesses and corporate headquarters.

"If you've got political pressure to spend more money and pressure against raising taxes, then you're in a pickle," said David Brunori, a public policy professor at George Washington University."

Income inequality isn't the only factor slowing state tax revenue. Online retailers account for a rising chunk of consumer spending. Yet they often manage to avoid sales taxes. Consumers are spending more on untaxed services, too.

S&P's analysis builds on a previous report this year in which it said the widening gap between the wealthiest Americans and everyone else has slowed the U.S. economy's recovery from the Great Recession. Because consumer spending fuels about 70 percent of the economy, weak pay growth typically slows economic growth.

Some states are scrambling for new revenue sources. Pennsylvania has raised fees for vanity license plates and other auto expenses. Colorado and Washington legalized recreational marijuana, in part on the promise that the proceeds would be taxed.

Adjusted for inflation, government data show that median household income rose by a few thousand dollars since 1979 to $51,017 in 2012 and remains below its level before the recession began in late 2007. By contrast, the top 1 percent has thrived. Their incomes averaged $1.26 million in 2012, up from $466,302 in 1979, according IRS data.

The combination of an increasingly global economy, greater productivity from technology and outsize investment returns has shifted a rising share of money to the wealthy. Of all the dollars earned in 2012, more than 22 percent went to the top 1 percent. That share has more than doubled since 1979.

Before income inequality began to rise consistently, state tax revenue grew an average of 9.97 percent a year from 1950 to 1979. That average steadily fell with each subsequent decade, dipping to 3.62 percent between 2000 and 2009.

State tax revenue growth has risen slightly since then as the economy has recovered and some states — California, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York, for example — have adopted higher top marginal income tax rates, according to S&P. In 2012, California voters backed a ballot measure to raise taxes.

That measure boosted California's sales tax to 7.5 percent for four years and income taxes rates to between 10.3 and 12.3 percent for seven years on income over $250,000. Plus, there's an additional 1 percent tax on millionaires.

More than half the income tax the state collected in 2012 came from the top 1 percent, compared with 33 percent in 1993. And in 2013, state tax revenue in California surged 15.6 percent.

The debate about taxes and inequality has spilled into the race for governor, with the Democratic incumbent, Jerry Brown, saying a failure to broadly increase wages has stunted growth.

"If the consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt, aren't making a decent salary, how the heck are they going to buy anything?" Brown told the California School Employees Association. "And if they don't buy anything, the economy doesn't go forward and doesn't work."

Republican challenger Neal Kashkari, a former U.S. Treasury official and Goldman Sachs investment banker, has said that school reform is the ultimate key for closing the wealth gap.

"The root cause of income inequality is a failure of our education system," Kashkari said.

Seven other states have also raised top marginal rates since 2009. This marks a reversal of the trend from 1985 to 2009, when average top marginal tax rates across all states fell slightly.

The most affluent Americans typically receive most of their income from profits in stocks and other investments, rather than wages. This means that swings in financial markets can cause state revenue to gyrate from year to year.

Some states — including Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Texas and Washington — rely primarily on sales taxes for funding. They're more dependent on consumer spending and don't benefit much from the gains that have flowed mainly to the wealthiest Americans.

Republican lawmakers in Georgia are pushing to replace that state's income tax with an expanded sales tax. State Sen. Judson Hill disputes the view, held by many economists, that the wealth gap dampens economic growth. The Republican lawmaker argued that some "of these individuals at higher incomes will hire more people and create new companies, which will provide opportunity for everybody at every income level."

Across all states, sales taxes account for 30.1 percent of all state revenue, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Personal income taxes make up 36.6 percent. The rest comes from other sources, such as taxes on fuel, alcohol and cigarettes.

As consumers have spent more online and on untaxed services, many states have tried to tax items like Netflix subscriptions and iTunes downloads. Washington state now taxes services at dating centers, tanning salons and Turkish baths.

Kim Rueben, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, said the rise of untaxed purchases might have squeezed state revenue even if income inequality hadn't widened.

"Sales taxes are being eroded by the fact that we're moving to a services economy, and people are buying far more on the Internet," she said.

Research by Lucy Dadayan, a senior policy analyst at the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, notes that income tax collections have become more volatile from year to year, making it harder for states to plan budgets, provide services and launch programs. She endorses an overhaul of state tax codes to produce a more balanced revenue flow.

But S&P says its findings suggest that the wealth gap derives from many factors and that state tax-code revisions don't fully address the consequences.

"Changes to state fiscal policy alone won't likely fix what's wrong," S&P concludes.

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ZF buying TRW Automotive for about $11.74B

LIVONIA, Mich. — German automotive transmission maker ZF Friedrichshafen AG is buying Michigan-based TRW Automotive for $11.74 billion, a move that creates the world's second-largest auto supplier.

The deal, with a total value of about $13.5 billion including the assumption of TRW's debt, gives ZF access to TRW's portfolio of advanced driver assistance and safety products, including air bags and radar-activated cruise control that automatically stops cars if something is in their path. Government regulations and consumer buying preferences are moving toward cars that take on more driving tasks such as automatic emergency braking.

"It does help ZF start to transform their business and expand their business to what industry is frankly moving toward," said Mike Wall, an analyst with IHS Automotive. "We're going to see the mainstream adoption of more and more of this technology in everyday vehicles."

ZF will pay $105.60 per TRW share, a 2 percent premium to its Friday closing price of $103.85 and a 16 percent premium to its closing price on July 9, before ZF confirmed it was working on the deal.

TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., based in Livonia, Michigan, will be a separate division within ZF, which is based in Friedrichshafen, Germany. ZF said in a statement that the Detroit area would remain a "major business center" for the merged company.

The deal will create an automotive supplier business with combined sales of approximately $41 billion and 138,000 employees. That would be second only to German supplier Robert Bosch GmbH, according to rankings compiled by the industry publication Automotive News. Bosch had sales of $59 billion in 2013 and has 281,381 employees worldwide.

Earlier Monday, ZF announced plans to sell its share of a steering system joint venture to Bosch. The decade-old venture between Bosch and ZF had sales of $5 billion in 2013. Terms of the sale weren't disclosed.

Last week, TRW Automotive announced the sale of its engine valve business to Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp. for $385 million, apparently clearing the way for the ZF deal. Both actions will likely ease European and U.S. regulatory approval of the ZF and TRW merger.

Both companies' boards approved the transaction, which will be financed with available cash and debt financing. There's no financing condition.

The deal is targeted to close in the first half of 2015. It still needs approval from TRW shareholders.

TRW's stock declined 84 cents, or just under 1 percent, to $103.01 in midday trading Monday.

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Olive Garden defends breadstick policy

NEW YORK — Olive Garden is defending its practice of giving customers as many breadsticks as they want, saying the policy conveys "Italian generosity."

The remark is part of a response by the chain's parent company, Darden Restaurants Inc., to a nearly 300-page criticism released by hedge fund Starboard Value last week. Starboard took Olive Garden and its management to task for a litany of issues, including its liberal distribution of breadsticks, its failure to salt the water used to boil its pasta and even the length of the asparagus it serves.

Darden's 24-page response doesn't specifically address each of Starboard's criticisms, but states that the company is already implementing a variety of strategies to improve Olive Garden's performance. The company says it has introduced new menu items to underscore value, for instance, and is testing ordering technologies using table-top tablets.

Starboard is lobbying to gain control of Darden's board of directors at the company's annual meeting Oct. 10. Darden, which is based in Orlando, Florida, has struggled to boost sales at Olive Garden with the growing popularity of chains such as Chipotle, where people feel they can get food similar in quality to a sit-down restaurant for less money. Under pressure to boost results, Darden recently sold off Red Lobster, which was doing even worse than Olive Garden. But Starboard and others took issue with the sale and wanted the company's breakup structured differently.

As for its breadsticks, Starboard said last week that Olive Garden was being wasteful because servers weren't sticking to the policy of providing one breadstick per customer, plus an extra for the table. The investor said servers lacked "training and discipline" and were bringing out too many breadsticks at a time, which also led to cold breadsticks. Starboard noted that it wasn't calling for Olive Garden to stop giving away unlimited breadsticks, but simply exercise more control in how they're distributed.

Starboard also said servers were overfilling salad bowls and using too much dressing, which it said drives up costs.

In its response Monday, Darden said that "Olive Garden's salad and breadsticks have been an icon of brand equity since 1982." The company didn't say whether it would change the way salad and breadsticks are brought out, however.

___

Follow Candice Choi at www.twitter.com/candicechoi

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GM expert says 19 deaths eligible for compensation

DETROIT — The death toll tied to faulty ignition switches in General Motors small cars has risen to 19, according to a compensation expert hired by the company. The number is likely to go higher.

Kenneth Feinberg said Monday that he has determined that 19 wrongful death claims are eligible for payments from GM. General Motors' estimate of deaths has stood at 13 for months, although the automaker acknowledged the possibility of a higher count.

Feinberg received 125 death claims due to the faulty switches in older-model small cars such as the Chevrolet Cobalt. The rest remain under review or require further documentation, he said in a report issued Monday.

"The public report is simply reporting on those eligible to date," Feinberg spokeswoman Camille Biros said in an email. "There will certainly be others."

GM has admitted knowing about the ignition switch problem for more than a decade. Yet it didn't begin recalling the switches in 2.6 million small cars until earlier this year. The automaker hired Feinberg to compensate victims of crashes caused by the switches, and Feinberg has said GM has not limited the total amount he can pay. Some lawmakers have estimated the death toll is close to 100.

Biros, citing confidentiality agreements, said Feinberg will not identify any of those eligible for payments, nor will he say if the 19 deemed eligible so far include the 13 deaths that GM has documented. GM has not identified the 13 victims. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says it has not tallied the total number of deaths.

Biros said no claims have been rejected yet, although Feinberg is in the process of turning down a few because they don't meet the requirements for compensation. Feinberg will issue reports each Monday on how many claims have been granted, she said.

Feinberg also has received 320 claims for compensation due to injuries. Of those, 12 have been deemed eligible for payments so far.

Of the injury claims, 58 were in the most serious category, seeking compensation for injuries resulting in loss of use of limbs, amputation, permanent brain damage or pervasive burns, the Feinberg statement said. Another 262 claims are for less-serious injuries that required hospital stays or outpatient medical treatment within 48 hours of the crash.

The deadline for filing a claim is Dec. 31. Feinberg will follow formulas to determine how much people will get, and they can demonstrate circumstances to him that would bring more money. Claimants can wait until he comes up with an amount before deciding whether to sue GM or take the money.

GM has estimated the cost of compensating victims at $400 million, but says it could rise to $600 million.

The faulty ignition switches can slip out of the "run" position into "accessory" or "off," cutting off power to the engine. That can knock out power steering or brakes and disable the air bags if there's a crash.

The ignition switch problem triggered a companywide safety review that has resulted in 29 million GM vehicles being recalled through August.

Despite persistent bad publicity for much of the year, GM's sales haven't been significantly harmed by the spate of recalls. GM's U.S. sales are up 2.8 percent through August. U.S. auto sales overall have risen 5.1 percent during the same time.

GM dealers have been able to convert customers who come in for recall repairs into new-car buyers when they see renovated dealerships and the company's new vehicles, GM North American President Alan Batey said Monday in an interview. Many customers are first-time GM buyers, having bought used cars in the past, he said.

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Speculation swirls over Fed language on rate hike

WASHINGTON — When the Federal Reserve issues a policy statement after it meets this week, the financial world will be on high alert for two words:

"Considerable time."

The presence or absence of that phrase will trigger a rush to assess the likely timing of the Fed's first increase in interest rates since it cut them to record lows in 2008.

The Fed's recent statements have said it expects to keep its key short-term rate near zero for a "considerable time" after it stops buying Treasurys and mortgage bonds. Those bond purchases have been intended to keep long-term rates down to support the economy.

But the purchases are set to end in November, so the Fed may soon see the need to use some phrasing other than "considerable time" to signify when it might start raising rates. It could sub out that phrase in this week's statement. Or it could wait until its next meeting in October.

Whatever the statement says when the Fed's two-day meeting ends Wednesday, Chair Janet Yellen will be pressed when she meets with reporters later to clarify the Fed's intentions.

Most economists think the Fed will raise rates starting around mid-2015. But as the U.S. economy has strengthened, speculation has intensified about whether it might do so sooner, perhaps by March.

With job growth solid, manufacturing and construction growing and unemployment at a near-normal 6.1 percent, many analysts think the Fed is edging closer to a rate increase to prevent a rising economy from igniting inflation. If so, it might send such a signal by dropping "considerable time" and substituting other language to suggest a likely rate hike by early 2015.

On the other hand, the Fed could drop "considerable time" but substitute vaguer language suggesting it might wait longer to raise rates than many expect. Yellen has cautioned that the drop in unemployment may overstate the job market's improvement. She has said the Fed also takes into account the number of people unemployed for more than six months; the number of part-timers who want full-time work; and average wages. Those measures remain less than healthy.

Whatever the Fed's intentions, some economists think it will make no major changes in its policy statement for now.

"All the trend lines for the economy look pretty good right now," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "I don't think the Fed wants to upset the apple cart."

Over the past several years, the Fed's ultra-low rates have helped the economy, cheered the stock market and shrunk mortgage rates. A rate increase could threaten to reverse those trends.

In August, U.S. employers added just 142,000 jobs, well below the 212,000 average of the previous 12 months. The slowdown was seen as likely temporary. But some analysts say it underscored that the economic outlook may remain too hazy for the Fed to signal an earlier-than-expected rate hike.

The Fed was reminded last year that markets are highly sensitive to signals about the end of a prolonged period of low rates. In June 2013, when Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the Fed might start slowing its bond purchases before year's end, the stock market plunged over two days. And bond rates headed up, slowing the housing recovery and jolting developing countries that had benefited from ultra-low U.S. rates.

"The adverse market reaction last year really did scare the Fed," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "For that reason, they are treading cautiously now."

Those who think the Fed will modify the "considerable time" language this week point to recent comments from some officials. For example, Charles Plosser, president of the Fed's Philadelphia regional bank, dissented at the last Fed meeting in July because he opposed the continued use of the "considerable time" phrase. He said it didn't reflect progress the economy has made toward the Fed's goals.

Plosser is among the Fed's "hawks" — those who worry that super-low rates will stoke inflation or fuel asset bubbles.

With some hawks as well as doves expressing unease about the Fed's use of "considerable time," some analysts say the Fed could tweak the language this week even at the risk of jolting markets.

"The Fed has been a major player in supporting the rise in the stock market, and that makes the markets highly sensitive," said David Jones, the author of a new history of the Fed. "But if the Fed doesn't start to signal the coming end of extremely low rates, the markets will keep rallying and the correction will be even sharper when it does come."

Jones expects the Fed to drop the "considerable time" language. He also thinks it will modify its statement's reference to "significant underutilization of labor resources" to note the strengthening job market. He expects the first rate increase by March.

But David Wyss, a former Fed economist who teaches at Brown University, said he still foresees June as the most likely time.

"Things are going pretty good now, but there is still an awful lot that can go wrong," Wyss said. "June 2015 is still the best guess for the first rate hike."

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